tv Alex Isenstadt on Republican Presidential Candidates CSPAN January 5, 2016 11:39pm-11:46pm EST
want to stop donald trump, it's best to let him sort of hang himself on his own. >> but he remains the front runner in the polls and has so for the last seven or eight months. >> and there's no indication that something could stop him. romney has not endorsed a candidate yet. he is expressing growing frustration about donald trump's prolonged lead in polls. romney, when we talk to his aides, he long believed that he stumbled earlier and go down. that hasn't happened. and romney's concerned about the impact that trump is having now on the party's brand. romney has not endorsed a candidate in this race, but he's paying close attention to house
races. his old friend paul ryan is now house speaker. romney's coming to d.c. in march to hoist a big spring dinner. >> trump, cruz, the reporting of alex isenstadt. jeb bush talks with supporters at a town hall in meredith, new hampshire. we'll take you there live at 6:30 eastern. former agriculture secretary and congressman dan glickman talked about the president's recently announced executive order on guns with students at the washington center. this is about two hours. our seminar is titled, in pursuit of the presidency. and i put in a subtitle, being a
traditional professor here, does conventional wisdom matter. let me give you a little bit of background here. in the past 20 years, and i've been teaching american politics since the fall of 1996. we've had of three races with no incumbent. each one of those elections will be in the history books and in the american politics textbooks for different reasons. in 2000, just a little context. in september of 2000, the american political association, we have 6,000 political scientists who gathered together for four days to assess politics and political theory, international relations. they had a panel asking if the campaigns matter. because a number of political
scientists had run models forecasting who was going to win. and they all showed there was a "new york times" article. i can still remember exactly where it was placed. of course at that time we were still raiding papers, predicting that al gore was going to win the popular vote. so the question was, does the campaign, the conference took place over labor day weekend. do the next two months really matter? the models were correct. al gore did win the popular vote, but he didn't win the presidency. i was teaching at west point at the time. it was my first year there. and i'll never forget on election day tuesday morning, one of my students, a student who had dozed through much of the fall semester, and at west fall, if a student falls asleep you can make them stand up. sew had spent most of the time standing up. what happens if george bush wins the popular vote and al gore wins the electoral college vote, what do you think will happen?
and i said it hasn't happened since 1888. we're not -- and these were my famous last words. -- we're not going to see that again. it's an aberration in american politics. we will know wednesday morning who the next president of the united states will be. didn't happen. and of course it was the reverse. i still remember that the four key states, actually, again, how history can repeat itself, ohio, pennsylvania, florida and michigan. and i remember when florida was called and then pennsylvania was called. i remember my mother calling and saying, so you said whoever wins three of those four states wins the election. so that means al gore has won. looks like that. and then i'm sure you remember, have read about, if you don't, many people here i think do remember what happened when florida changes, waking up in the morning, seeing florida as
undecided. and then the election went into december. shocking. if there had ever been momentum for getting rid of the electoral college, it was after the 2000 election. and i think the national popular vote organization, which you may know about and will be talking about, electoral reform later this week. built quite a bit, had gained some momentum over the next few years. at this point, it doesn't seem as though that those changes are moving forward, but, but there are certainly the fair vote organization is talking about other proposals for reform. we'll be discussing that later this woke. and i think it's very possible in the next 20 to 30 years that we will see some structural changes in american politics. and we can date that largely back to the 2000 election. moving ahead to 2008, right? because 2004 was an incumbent.
2008. october 2007 i was in washington for a conference. and quite well-known commentator, spoke at the conference, and said if everything goes as we expect, then senator clinton will walk in the democratic nomination on super tuesday. i'm certain that was february 5th, 2008, and the real question will be who wins the republican nomination. all right? about, that was i think roughly the middle of october, 2007. november 9th, 2007 was the iowa, jackson-jefferson democratic party dinner. barack obama was one of the last speakers. got up, delivered an address where he quoted dr. martin luther king, dr. king talking about the fierce urgency of now and why he was in the race. that speech put the clinton campaign on notice that there